Polymarket Geopolitics Odds & Prediction Markets
Live odds and prediction markets on geopolitics — conflicts, ceasefires, diplomacy and world events on Polymarket.
Polymarket has 24 live Geopolitics markets right now (updated November 2026). As of November 2026, the most-traded Polymarket Geopolitics market is “Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?”, where Yes is the favorite at 98% implied odds on $696K of 24h volume.
Hottest market
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?
Yes98%
No2%
$696K 24h$1.51M totalView market
24h volume by market
24 liveBusiest: Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?$696K / 24h
Where the money is trading right now across live geopoliticsmarkets — each bar is one market's 24h volume, hottest first.
Live markets
24
on Polymarket · November 2026
24h volume
$2.35M
across these markets
In-play now
0
no live games
Current favorite
98%
Yes
Live Geopolitics markets & odds
24 markets, hottest by 24h volume first.
As of November 2026, the most-traded Polymarket Geopolitics market is “Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?”, where Yes is the favorite at 98% implied odds on $696K of 24h volume.
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?
Yes98%
No2%
$696K 24h$145K liq16h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
No90%
Yes11%
$251K 24h$78.3M total$489K liq
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?
Yes83%
No17%
$202K 24h$1.35M total$120K liq
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?
No52%
Yes49%
$181K 24h$1.95M total$156K liq
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?
No79%
Yes22%
$146K 24h$1.66M total$195K liq
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
No98%
Yes2%
$95.5K 24h$45.9M total$503K liq
Iran leadership change by November 30?
No96%
Yes4%
$78.2K 24h$903K total$182K liq
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026?
No93%
Yes7%
$75.0K 24h$1.13M total$117K liq
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 30?
No83%
Yes17%
$69.5K 24h$538K total$91.1K liq
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
No97%
Yes3%
$65.8K 24h$29.6M total$567K liq
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 15?
Yes55%
No46%
$64.8K 24h$335K total$108K liq
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?
Yes67%
No34%
$61.8K 24h$1.07M total$109K liq
Why bet on Geopolitics with prediction markets?
Geopolitics markets price the odds of real-world outcomes — ceasefires and conflict milestones, sanctions and diplomatic deals, leadership transitions, and the results of summits and treaties. They give a continuously updated, money-weighted read on events that official forecasts update slowly; prices move as the news does.
A Polymarket market isn't a sportsbook line — it's a live market of shares. Each outcome trades between 0¢ and 100¢, and the price isthe crowd's implied probability: a side at 60¢ is the market's 60% pick. There's no bookmaker setting the number and baking in a margin; the odds move in real time as traders buy and sell, so a poll swing, a debate or breaking news re-prices the market instantly. Back a side you think is mispriced, and winning shares settle at $1 while losing shares go to $0 — the odds and the payout are the same number.
Polynyx is the independent analytics layer on top: it pulls the same live geopolitics odds and 24h volume as the interactive grid, shows which wallets are trading each market, and ranks the sharpest geopolitics traders. You place bets on Polymarket itself; nothing here is financial advice.
Sharpest Geopolitics traders on Polymarket
The wallets with the most realized profit inside Geopolitics markets — rebuilt from on-chain trades, bots filtered out. Follow their positioning before you bet.
| # | Trader | Geopolitics PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | denizz | +$2.12M |
| 2 | wan123 | +$1.92M |
| 3 | Erasmus. | +$1.35M |
| 4 | Sandra.rachkova | +$1.30M |
| 5 | Joe-Biden | +$883K |
100,000 wallets have traded Polymarket Geopolitics markets.Full Geopolitics leaderboard
Free vs Premium for Geopolitics bettors
The free tier shows the shapeof the edge — live odds, volume and the full leaderboard. Premium names and quantifies it: who's buying, how good they really are, and the model picks as they fire.
What Premium unlocks for Geopolitics bettors
$18.99/month or $179.99/year ($15.00/month)| Capability | Free | Premium |
|---|---|---|
| Live Geopolitics odds, 24h volume & hot markets | Included | Included |
| Full Geopolitics trader leaderboard (ranked by realized PnL) | Included | Included |
| Who's buying — smart-money names, ranks & P&L on Geopolitics markets | Premium only | Included |
| ROI & win rate on every Geopolitics trader | Premium only | Included |
| Live model picks & sharp-agreement signals, as they fire | Premium only | Included |
| Full trade history & all-time P&L per wallet | Last 30 days | All-time |
| Category breakdowns + best & worst markets per wallet | Premium only | Included |
| Track wallets as one portfolio | 1 wallet | Unlimited |
Go Premium$18.99/mo, or $15.00/mo billed yearly (21% off) · cancel anytime
How to bet on Geopolitics on Polymarket
- 1Open the Geopolitics market you want on Polynyx and read the live implied odds, 24h volume and which wallets are trading it.
- 2Decide where the price looks wrong — a favorite too cheap, an underdog overpriced — using the market model and the sharpest-trader positioning above.
- 3Place the bet on Polymarket itself with a funded wallet: buy shares of the outcome you back. Your cost is the price; winning shares settle at $1.
- 4Track it in your Polynyx portfolio and watch the odds move as the event plays out.
Polynyx is independent analytics, not a sportsbook, and nothing here is financial advice.
More politics on Polymarket
Polymarket Geopolitics — frequently asked
- How many Geopolitics markets are live on Polymarket right now?
- 24 live and upcoming Polymarket Geopolitics markets are tradable as of November 2026. The most active is “Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?”. Polynyx lists each with its current implied odds and 24h volume, hottest first.
- Who is the top Polymarket Geopolitics trader?
- denizz leads Polymarket Geopolitics by realized P&L (+$2.12M) on a 67% win rate as of November 2026. 100,000 wallets have traded these markets; see the full leaderboard for ROI and the rest of the field.
- What geopolitics markets are on Polymarket?
- Markets on ceasefires and conflict milestones, sanctions and diplomatic agreements, leadership changes, and summit or treaty outcomes — each a live implied probability with 24h volume on Polynyx.
- Are prediction markets a good gauge of world events?
- They reflect the real-money consensus of many traders, so they often move faster than official forecasts — but they can be thin or volatile around breaking news. Polynyx shows each market's volume and trading wallets so you can judge how much weight the price carries; nothing here is advice.
- What does Polynyx Premium add for Geopolitics bettors?
- The free tier shows live geopolitics odds, volume and the full trader leaderboard. Premium names and quantifies the edge: who's buying each Geopolitics market (smart-money names, ROI and win rate), live model picks and sharp-agreement signals as they fire, all-time trade history, and unlimited portfolio wallets. It's from $18.99/month or $179.99/year ($15.00/month), cancel anytime.
- Is Polynyx affiliated with Polymarket?
- No. Polynyx is an independent analytics platform that reads public Polymarket data and on-chain trades; it isn't operated by or affiliated with Polymarket. Odds shown here are live Polymarket prices.