Polymarket US Politics Odds & Prediction Markets
Live odds and prediction markets on US politics — the administration, Congress, approval and policy on Polymarket.
Polymarket has 24 live US Politics markets right now (updated November 2026). As of November 2026, the most-traded Polymarket US Politics market is “Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?”, where No is the favorite at 68% implied odds on $205K of 24h volume.
Hottest market
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
No68%
Yes33%
$205K 24h$1.88M totalView market
24h volume by market
24 liveBusiest: Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?$205K / 24h
Where the money is trading right now across live us politicsmarkets — each bar is one market's 24h volume, hottest first.
Live markets
24
on Polymarket · November 2026
24h volume
$411K
across these markets
In-play now
0
no live games
Current favorite
68%
No
Live US Politics markets & odds
24 markets, hottest by 24h volume first.
As of November 2026, the most-traded Polymarket US Politics market is “Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?”, where No is the favorite at 68% implied odds on $205K of 24h volume.
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
No68%
Yes33%
$205K 24h$1.88M total$137K liq
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30?
No81%
Yes20%
$68.6K 24h$588K total$57.6K liq
Marco Rubio out as Secretary of State by March 31, 2027?
No74%
Yes27%
$31.1K 24h$40.9K total$66.8K liq
Marco Rubio out as Secretary of State by November 15, 2026?
No98%
Yes2%
$19.9K 24h$34.0K total$80.3K liq
2028 presidential odds leader on November 30?
JD Vance25%
Gavin Newsom2%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez1%
$13.6K 24h$94.0K total$160K liq
Marco Rubio out as Secretary of State by December 31, 2026?
No86%
Yes14%
$10.7K 24h$34.9K total$53.6K liq
Kash Patel out by December 31?
No80%
Yes21%
$10.6K 24h$475K total$22.9K liq
Marco Rubio out as Secretary of State by November 30, 2026?
No96%
Yes5%
$8.6K 24h$29.7K total$43.3K liq
Will Ted Cruz announce a presidential run before 2028?
Yes84%
No17%
$6.2K 24h$14.5K total$14.7K liq
Marco Rubio out as Secretary of State by November 8, 2026?
No100%
Yes0%
$6.2K 24h$43.8K liq40h
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez announce a Presidential run before 2028?
Yes60%
No40%
$5.1K 24h$19.7K total$28.8K liq
Will Ron DeSantis announce a presidential run before 2028?
Yes89%
No12%
$4.0K 24h$6.1K total$14.4K liq
Why bet on US Politics with prediction markets?
US Politics markets cover the machinery of Washington beyond any single candidate: presidential and congressional approval thresholds, cabinet and court appointments, the fate of specific bills, and debt-ceiling and shutdown deadlines. Prices are live implied probabilities that re-rate as votes, nominations and deadlines approach.
A Polymarket market isn't a sportsbook line — it's a live market of shares. Each outcome trades between 0¢ and 100¢, and the price isthe crowd's implied probability: a side at 60¢ is the market's 60% pick. There's no bookmaker setting the number and baking in a margin; the odds move in real time as traders buy and sell, so a poll swing, a debate or breaking news re-prices the market instantly. Back a side you think is mispriced, and winning shares settle at $1 while losing shares go to $0 — the odds and the payout are the same number.
Polynyx is the independent analytics layer on top: it pulls the same live us politics odds and 24h volume as the interactive grid, shows which wallets are trading each market, and ranks the sharpest us politics traders. You place bets on Polymarket itself; nothing here is financial advice.
Sharpest US Politics traders on Polymarket
The wallets with the most realized profit inside US Politics markets — rebuilt from on-chain trades, bots filtered out. Follow their positioning before you bet.
| # | Trader | US Politics PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Theo4 | +$6.06M |
| 2 | qrpenc | +$2.35M |
| 3 | Len9311238 | +$1.92M |
| 4 | mikatrade77 | +$1.77M |
| 5 | alexmulti | +$1.69M |
23,788 wallets have traded Polymarket US Politics markets.Full US Politics leaderboard
Free vs Premium for US Politics bettors
The free tier shows the shapeof the edge — live odds, volume and the full leaderboard. Premium names and quantifies it: who's buying, how good they really are, and the model picks as they fire.
What Premium unlocks for US Politics bettors
$18.99/month or $179.99/year ($15.00/month)| Capability | Free | Premium |
|---|---|---|
| Live US Politics odds, 24h volume & hot markets | Included | Included |
| Full US Politics trader leaderboard (ranked by realized PnL) | Included | Included |
| Who's buying — smart-money names, ranks & P&L on US Politics markets | Premium only | Included |
| ROI & win rate on every US Politics trader | Premium only | Included |
| Live model picks & sharp-agreement signals, as they fire | Premium only | Included |
| Full trade history & all-time P&L per wallet | Last 30 days | All-time |
| Category breakdowns + best & worst markets per wallet | Premium only | Included |
| Track wallets as one portfolio | 1 wallet | Unlimited |
Go Premium$18.99/mo, or $15.00/mo billed yearly (21% off) · cancel anytime
How to bet on US Politics on Polymarket
- 1Open the US Politics market you want on Polynyx and read the live implied odds, 24h volume and which wallets are trading it.
- 2Decide where the price looks wrong — a favorite too cheap, an underdog overpriced — using the market model and the sharpest-trader positioning above.
- 3Place the bet on Polymarket itself with a funded wallet: buy shares of the outcome you back. Your cost is the price; winning shares settle at $1.
- 4Track it in your Polynyx portfolio and watch the odds move as the event plays out.
Polynyx is independent analytics, not a sportsbook, and nothing here is financial advice.
More politics on Polymarket
Polymarket US Politics — frequently asked
- How many US Politics markets are live on Polymarket right now?
- 24 live and upcoming Polymarket US Politics markets are tradable as of November 2026. The most active is “Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?”. Polynyx lists each with its current implied odds and 24h volume, hottest first.
- Who is the top Polymarket US Politics trader?
- Theo4 leads Polymarket US Politics by realized P&L (+$6.06M) on a 82% win rate as of November 2026. 23,788 wallets have traded these markets; see the full leaderboard for ROI and the rest of the field.
- What US politics markets trade on Polymarket?
- Approval-rating thresholds, cabinet and judicial appointments, legislative outcomes, and debt-ceiling and shutdown deadlines — each priced as a live implied probability with 24h volume on Polynyx.
- How accurate are political prediction markets?
- They aggregate what thousands of traders are willing to stake, so the price is a real-money consensus probability rather than a single poll. Markets can still be wrong or thin, which is why Polynyx shows the 24h volume and which wallets are trading each one — nothing here is advice.
- What does Polynyx Premium add for US Politics bettors?
- The free tier shows live us politics odds, volume and the full trader leaderboard. Premium names and quantifies the edge: who's buying each US Politics market (smart-money names, ROI and win rate), live model picks and sharp-agreement signals as they fire, all-time trade history, and unlimited portfolio wallets. It's from $18.99/month or $179.99/year ($15.00/month), cancel anytime.
- Is Polynyx affiliated with Polymarket?
- No. Polynyx is an independent analytics platform that reads public Polymarket data and on-chain trades; it isn't operated by or affiliated with Polymarket. Odds shown here are live Polymarket prices.