Polymarket Trump Odds & Prediction Markets
Live odds and prediction markets on Donald Trump — 2028, approval ratings, legal cases and policy on Polymarket.
Polymarket has 24 live Trump markets right now (updated November 2026). As of November 2026, the most-traded Polymarket Trump market is “Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?”, where No is the favorite at 68% implied odds on $71.0K of 24h volume.
Hottest market
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?
No68%
Yes33%
$71.0K 24h$273K totalView market
24h volume by market
24 liveBusiest: Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?$71.0K / 24h
Where the money is trading right now across live trumpmarkets — each bar is one market's 24h volume, hottest first.
Live markets
24
on Polymarket · November 2026
24h volume
$471K
across these markets
In-play now
0
no live games
Current favorite
68%
No
Live Trump markets & odds
24 markets, hottest by 24h volume first.
As of November 2026, the most-traded Polymarket Trump market is “Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?”, where No is the favorite at 68% implied odds on $71.0K of 24h volume.
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?
No68%
Yes33%
$71.0K 24h$273K total$116K liq
Presidential Election Winner 2028
Donald Trump1%
Ivanka Trump1%
Donald Trump Jr.0%
$61.2K 24h$34.1M total$1.19M liq
Will Scott Bessent leave the Trump administration before 2027?
No90%
Yes10%
$51.4K 24h$73.4K total$49.1K liq
Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31?
No97%
Yes3%
$45.0K 24h$632K total$108K liq
Trump out as President before 2027?
No97%
Yes3%
$38.3K 24h$14.3M total$316K liq
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
Donald Trump Jr.2%
Ivanka Trump1%
Donald Trump1%
$33.0K 24h$28.7M total$1.26M liq
Will Stephen Miller leave the Trump administration before 2027?
No96%
Yes4%
$27.8K 24h$47.6K total$61.3K liq
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration before 2027?
No86%
Yes15%
$23.4K 24h$202K total$135K liq
Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?
China89%
No meeting by December 3111%
United States1%
$19.6K 24h$1.28M total$255K liq
Will Trump be impeached by December 31, 2026?
No99%
Yes1%
$14.9K 24h$1.14M total$93.2K liq
Trump, Putin, and Xi seen together before 2027?
Yes83%
No18%
$10.2K 24h$73.4K total$7.7K liq
Will Trump meet with Flávio Bolsonaro in 2026?
No80%
Yes20%
$9.2K 24h$204K total$29.3K liq
Why bet on Trump with prediction markets?
Trump markets are among the most actively traded on Polymarket. They run from longer-dated outrights — the 2028 Republican nomination and presidential-race odds — to shorter-horizon markets on approval-rating thresholds, legal and indictment outcomes, and specific policy or executive actions. Each is priced on live implied odds that move as polling, court schedules and news break.
A Polymarket market isn't a sportsbook line — it's a live market of shares. Each outcome trades between 0¢ and 100¢, and the price isthe crowd's implied probability: a side at 60¢ is the market's 60% pick. There's no bookmaker setting the number and baking in a margin; the odds move in real time as traders buy and sell, so a poll swing, a debate or breaking news re-prices the market instantly. Back a side you think is mispriced, and winning shares settle at $1 while losing shares go to $0 — the odds and the payout are the same number.
Polynyx is the independent analytics layer on top: it pulls the same live trump odds and 24h volume as the interactive grid, shows which wallets are trading each market, and ranks the sharpest trump traders. You place bets on Polymarket itself; nothing here is financial advice.
Sharpest Trump traders on Polymarket
The wallets with the most realized profit inside Trump markets — rebuilt from on-chain trades, bots filtered out. Follow their positioning before you bet.
| # | Trader | Trump PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Theo4 | +$14.2M |
| 2 | Fredi9999 | +$13.5M |
| 3 | zxgngl | +$11.4M |
| 4 | JustPracticeMan | +$11.4M |
| 5 | walletmobile | +$5.94M |
6 wallets have traded Polymarket Trump markets.Full Trump leaderboard
Free vs Premium for Trump bettors
The free tier shows the shapeof the edge — live odds, volume and the full leaderboard. Premium names and quantifies it: who's buying, how good they really are, and the model picks as they fire.
What Premium unlocks for Trump bettors
$18.99/month or $179.99/year ($15.00/month)| Capability | Free | Premium |
|---|---|---|
| Live Trump odds, 24h volume & hot markets | Included | Included |
| Full Trump trader leaderboard (ranked by realized PnL) | Included | Included |
| Who's buying — smart-money names, ranks & P&L on Trump markets | Premium only | Included |
| ROI & win rate on every Trump trader | Premium only | Included |
| Live model picks & sharp-agreement signals, as they fire | Premium only | Included |
| Full trade history & all-time P&L per wallet | Last 30 days | All-time |
| Category breakdowns + best & worst markets per wallet | Premium only | Included |
| Track wallets as one portfolio | 1 wallet | Unlimited |
Go Premium$18.99/mo, or $15.00/mo billed yearly (21% off) · cancel anytime
How to bet on Trump on Polymarket
- 1Open the Trump market you want on Polynyx and read the live implied odds, 24h volume and which wallets are trading it.
- 2Decide where the price looks wrong — a favorite too cheap, an underdog overpriced — using the market model and the sharpest-trader positioning above.
- 3Place the bet on Polymarket itself with a funded wallet: buy shares of the outcome you back. Your cost is the price; winning shares settle at $1.
- 4Track it in your Polynyx portfolio and watch the odds move as the event plays out.
Polynyx is independent analytics, not a sportsbook, and nothing here is financial advice.
More politics on Polymarket
Polymarket Trump — frequently asked
- How many Trump markets are live on Polymarket right now?
- 24 live and upcoming Polymarket Trump markets are tradable as of November 2026. The most active is “Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?”. Polynyx lists each with its current implied odds and 24h volume, hottest first.
- Who is the top Polymarket Trump trader?
- Theo4 leads Polymarket Trump by realized P&L (+$14.2M) on a 82% win rate as of November 2026. 6 wallets have traded these markets; see the full leaderboard for ROI and the rest of the field.
- What Trump markets are on Polymarket?
- They range from long-dated outrights — the 2028 Republican nomination and the next presidential election — to shorter markets on approval-rating levels, legal and indictment outcomes, and named policy or executive actions. Polynyx lists each with its live implied odds and 24h volume.
- What are the odds Trump runs in 2028?
- The live market sets them, not a pundit: the 2028 nomination and related markets price it as an implied probability in cents that updates in real time. Polynyx surfaces the current favorite and the full field — the number you see is the market's consensus, not a forecast from us.
- What does Polynyx Premium add for Trump bettors?
- The free tier shows live trump odds, volume and the full trader leaderboard. Premium names and quantifies the edge: who's buying each Trump market (smart-money names, ROI and win rate), live model picks and sharp-agreement signals as they fire, all-time trade history, and unlimited portfolio wallets. It's from $18.99/month or $179.99/year ($15.00/month), cancel anytime.
- Is Polynyx affiliated with Polymarket?
- No. Polynyx is an independent analytics platform that reads public Polymarket data and on-chain trades; it isn't operated by or affiliated with Polymarket. Odds shown here are live Polymarket prices.