Polymarket insights: smart-money strategies, scored after costs

Polymarket insights — frequently asked

What is a Polymarket Edge Score?

The Edge Score is a Bayesian skill rating for Polymarket traders. Instead of ranking wallets by how much money they have, it shrinks each wallet's win rate, ROI and consistency toward the field average by sample size, so a trader with a long, steady record outranks one wealthy wallet that got lucky once. It is then re-weighted by months-profitable consistency — the one signal that forward-validates (correlation ~0.54 with future consistency) — to surface genuinely skilled traders, not one-hit wonders.

Do Polymarket smart-money signals have an edge?

Measured honestly, mostly no — and this page shows the measurement. Every time two or more high-consistency traders back the same outcome, the signal is recorded at the price it fired at, before the result. Scored on what a taker would keep after the spread and Polymarket's taker fee, these signals win roughly as often as their price implies: a signal that wins 84% of the time at an 84¢ entry earns nothing. The edge finder ranks every strategy and slice (entry price, category, time to result, number of sharps) by its after-cost result with confidence intervals, and only calls something an edge when it holds at t ≥ 3 in both halves of its history.

Who are the most skilled Polymarket traders?

The Edge Score board ranks the most skilled Polymarket traders by proven skill rather than wealth — consistent win rate, ROI and months of profitability, with arbitrage and market-maker bots filtered out. The leaderboard refreshes continuously from on-chain trades, so the top of the skill ranking moves as traders perform. Browse the live board on the Insights and leaderboard pages.

Is the track record real or hypothetical?

It is a forward (prospective) record. Signals are logged the moment they fire and settled later from the same on-chain market truth as the live markets, only once a market pays out $1/$0 — so it reflects decisions made before the outcome was known, not a curve fit after the fact. Paper books also pay Polymarket's taker fee and slippage on every fill.

Does a high Edge Score guarantee future profit?

No. Skill persists more than luck on Polymarket — months-profitable consistency correlates with future consistency — but prediction markets are adversarial and edges decay as they get crowded. The Edge Score and the strategy results are evidence to inform your own research, not guarantees, and nothing here is financial advice.