Polymarket Fed & Rates Odds & Prediction Markets
Live odds and prediction markets on the Fed — FOMC decisions, the rate path and the dot plot on Polymarket.
Polymarket has 24 live Fed & Rates markets right now (updated November 2026). As of November 2026, the most-traded Polymarket Fed & Rates market is “Fed Decision in December?”, where 25 bps increase is the favorite at 77% implied odds on $839K of 24h volume.
Hottest market
Fed Decision in December?
25 bps increase77%
No change22%
50+ bps decrease1%
25 bps decrease1%
50+ bps increase1%
$839K 24h$16.6M totalView market
24h volume by market
24 liveBusiest: Fed Decision in December?$839K / 24h
Where the money is trading right now across live fed & ratesmarkets — each bar is one market's 24h volume, hottest first.
Live markets
24
on Polymarket · November 2026
24h volume
$1.02M
across these markets
In-play now
0
no live games
Current favorite
77%
25 bps increase
Live Fed & Rates markets & odds
24 markets, hottest by 24h volume first.
As of November 2026, the most-traded Polymarket Fed & Rates market is “Fed Decision in December?”, where 25 bps increase is the favorite at 77% implied odds on $839K of 24h volume.
Fed Decision in December?
25 bps increase77%
No change22%
50+ bps decrease1%
$839K 24h$16.6M total$2.67M liq
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?
Yes76%
No25%
$54.2K 24h$1.59M total$99.4K liq
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
0 (0 bps)98%
1 (25 bps)1%
$23.8K 24h$13.2M total$346K liq
How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
2 (50 bps)76%
1 (25 bps)23%
3 (75 bps)1%
$17.1K 24h$1.21M total$115K liq
Fed Decision in January?
No change74%
25 bps increase19%
25 bps decrease4%
$15.7K 24h$1.28M total$545K liq
Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)
Hike–Pause–Hike76%
Hike–Pause–Pause22%
Other1%
$14.0K 24h$412K total$61.2K liq
Bank of Canada Decision in December?
No Change75%
25 bps increase27%
$8.4K 24h$169K total$19.6K liq
Fed Decision in March?
No change55%
25 bps increase36%
25 bps decrease6%
$7.9K 24h$118K total$194K liq
Bank of England decision in December?
No change52%
25 bps increase48%
$7.0K 24h$55.5K total$5.3K liq
Fed decisions (Oct-Jan)
Pause-Hike-Pause71%
Pause-Pause-Hike13%
Pause-Pause-Pause8%
$6.0K 24h$163K total$93.2K liq
Bank of England Decision in February?
25 bps increase66%
No Change28%
25 bps decrease3%
$4.5K 24h$21.3K total$11.1K liq
Bank of Japan Decision in December?
25 bps increase75%
No change25%
50+ bps increase1%
$3.2K 24h$42.3K total$10.7K liq
Why bet on Fed & Rates with prediction markets?
Fed & Rates markets price the odds around US monetary policy: the next FOMC decision (hike, hold or cut, and its size), the number of moves across a year, where the policy rate lands by a given meeting, and Fed-chair and leadership questions. Prices are live implied probabilities that move with CPI, jobs data and Fed commentary — a market-based read alongside tools like CME FedWatch.
A Polymarket market isn't a sportsbook line — it's a live market of shares. Each outcome trades between 0¢ and 100¢, and the price isthe crowd's implied probability: a side at 60¢ is the market's 60% pick. There's no bookmaker setting the number and baking in a margin; the odds move in real time as traders buy and sell, so a jobs report, a CPI print or a Fed decision re-prices the market instantly. Back a side you think is mispriced, and winning shares settle at $1 while losing shares go to $0 — the odds and the payout are the same number.
Polynyx is the independent analytics layer on top: it pulls the same live fed & rates odds and 24h volume as the interactive grid, shows which wallets are trading each market, and ranks the sharpest fed & rates traders. You place bets on Polymarket itself; nothing here is financial advice.
Sharpest Fed & Rates traders on Polymarket
The wallets with the most realized profit inside Fed & Rates markets — rebuilt from on-chain trades, bots filtered out. Follow their positioning before you bet.
| # | Trader | Fed & Rates PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | timetowander | +$4.13M |
| 2 | Siziriv | +$2.96M |
| 3 | XAE12Archangel | +$1.86M |
| 4 | TheReturnOfDarthMaul | +$1.51M |
| 5 | elmcap2 | +$1.10M |
6 wallets have traded Polymarket Fed & Rates markets.Full Fed & Rates leaderboard
Free vs Premium for Fed & Rates bettors
The free tier shows the shapeof the edge — live odds, volume and the full leaderboard. Premium names and quantifies it: who's buying, how good they really are, and the model picks as they fire.
What Premium unlocks for Fed & Rates bettors
$18.99/month or $179.99/year ($15.00/month)| Capability | Free | Premium |
|---|---|---|
| Live Fed & Rates odds, 24h volume & hot markets | Included | Included |
| Full Fed & Rates trader leaderboard (ranked by realized PnL) | Included | Included |
| Who's buying — smart-money names, ranks & P&L on Fed & Rates markets | Premium only | Included |
| ROI & win rate on every Fed & Rates trader | Premium only | Included |
| Live model picks & sharp-agreement signals, as they fire | Premium only | Included |
| Full trade history & all-time P&L per wallet | Last 30 days | All-time |
| Category breakdowns + best & worst markets per wallet | Premium only | Included |
| Track wallets as one portfolio | 1 wallet | Unlimited |
Go Premium$18.99/mo, or $15.00/mo billed yearly (21% off) · cancel anytime
How to bet on Fed & Rates on Polymarket
- 1Open the Fed & Rates market you want on Polynyx and read the live implied odds, 24h volume and which wallets are trading it.
- 2Decide where the price looks wrong — a favorite too cheap, an underdog overpriced — using the market model and the sharpest-trader positioning above.
- 3Place the bet on Polymarket itself with a funded wallet: buy shares of the outcome you back. Your cost is the price; winning shares settle at $1.
- 4Track it in your Polynyx portfolio and watch the odds move as the event plays out.
Polynyx is independent analytics, not a sportsbook, and nothing here is financial advice.
More economics on Polymarket
Polymarket Fed & Rates — frequently asked
- How many Fed & Rates markets are live on Polymarket right now?
- 24 live and upcoming Polymarket Fed & Rates markets are tradable as of November 2026. The most active is “Fed Decision in December?”. Polynyx lists each with its current implied odds and 24h volume, hottest first.
- Who is the top Polymarket Fed & Rates trader?
- timetowander leads Polymarket Fed & Rates by realized P&L (+$4.13M) on a 37% win rate as of November 2026. 6 wallets have traded these markets; see the full leaderboard for ROI and the rest of the field.
- What Fed and interest-rate markets are on Polymarket?
- Next-meeting decision markets (hike/hold/cut and the size of a move), cumulative rate-path markets over a year, where the target rate sits by a date, and Fed-leadership markets — each with live implied odds and 24h volume on Polynyx.
- What are the odds the Fed cuts rates?
- The live FOMC market prices it as an implied probability in cents — a 25bp-cut outcome at 65¢ is a ~65% market chance. It updates in real time with every data print and Fed remark; it's the market's consensus, not advice.
- What does Polynyx Premium add for Fed & Rates bettors?
- The free tier shows live fed & rates odds, volume and the full trader leaderboard. Premium names and quantifies the edge: who's buying each Fed & Rates market (smart-money names, ROI and win rate), live model picks and sharp-agreement signals as they fire, all-time trade history, and unlimited portfolio wallets. It's from $18.99/month or $179.99/year ($15.00/month), cancel anytime.
- Is Polynyx affiliated with Polymarket?
- No. Polynyx is an independent analytics platform that reads public Polymarket data and on-chain trades; it isn't operated by or affiliated with Polymarket. Odds shown here are live Polymarket prices.