The guide
The 2028 US presidential cycle is already one of the most-traded themes on Polymarket. Long before the primaries, the market is pricing nominees, the general and the swing states — all as live shares. This is a tracker guide: for the current numbers, the elections odds page and the politics hub carry live prices that update continuously.
How a presidential market is built
The headline “next president” and “party nominee” markets are multi-outcome (neg-risk): every named candidate trades on one board, and all their prices sum to ~100¢. A candidate at 22¢is the market's ~22% implied probability. As the field narrows, prices redistribute — an exit pushes that candidate's share toward 0¢ and lifts the rest.
The markets that make up the cycle
- Party nominees — separate Republican and Democratic multi-outcome markets. For the Republican side specifically, see our Trump odds guide.
- General election winner — the headline presidential market, and party-to-win markets.
- Swing states & margins — individual state and threshold markets that reprice on polling.
Reading election odds without getting fooled
Early-cycle markets are thin and noisy — a single large order can move a longshot candidate several cents. Treat prices as live sentiment, not forecasts, and weight who is trading. A move led by proven political wallets is very different from one driven by a fresh account. For how the prices map to probability, read how Polymarket odds work.
Who's been right on politics
The politics leaderboardranks wallets by verified, rebuilt P&L on political markets. Open any one for its win rate and history, then watch the live flow on the smart-money tracker.
See the smart money with Premium
Prices and the leaderboard are free. Polynyx Premium (from $15.00/mo) reveals the names, ranks and P&L of every smart wallet on an election market, plus the model's live picks and all-time political win rates. The same data is available as a REST API and MCP server.
Polynyx is independent analytics, not a betting operator or a campaign, and nothing here is financial or voting advice. Market availability depends on your jurisdiction.